Global Oil and Gas Discoveries Decline for Tenth Consecutive Year

In recent times, oil exploration has regained prominence among nations and major oil companies, yet oil discoveries continue to hit record lows. Around 2010, annual conventional oil and gas discoveries exceeded 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent, but have now fallen to just one-third of that figure.

Rystad Energy analysis indicates that since 2020, global annual discoveries have averaged just over 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. From 2023 to September 2025, the annual discovery rate further declined to approximately 5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The global footprint of oil and gas exploration and production companies is no longer defined by breadth of area but by strategic precision. International oil giants and national oil companies are focusing on a handful of high-potential basins—such as Namibia's Orange Basin, Suriname's deepwater basin, Brazil's pre-salt basin, and near-field exploration areas with established infrastructure—while exiting marginal, mature, and low-return regions.

These premium exploration projects integrate advanced subsurface datasets, low-cost near-field tie-back technologies, digital applications, and low-carbon infrastructure to balance risk and reward. Current global oil discoveries are concentrated in specific hotspots like Namibia, Guyana, Brazil, and Suriname, highlighting the increasing regional concentration of exploration success and heightened risk appetite among global exploration and production companies. Frontier nations view this as an opportunity to attract foreign investment, generate revenue, and build energy security through favorable fiscal terms. Meanwhile, the ongoing evaluation of underexplored areas provides mature oil-producing nations with long-term growth options and avenues to delay production decline.

Over the past two decades, the regions offering opportunities for oil and gas discoveries have undergone significant shifts. The first transformative shift marked the dawn of the subsalt era: Petrobras' 2006 discovery of the Tupi field (now known as the Lula field) in the Santos Basin redefined global exploration boundaries by overcoming challenges in imaging and developing thick salt layers. This breakthrough represented both a geological achievement and a technological revolution: improved seismic imaging, directional drilling, and subsea engineering unlocked reservoir types that had eluded explorers for decades. The second breakthrough occurred in Guyana and Suriname: ExxonMobil's 2015 discovery of the Lisa field in the Stabroek block launched one of the most successful new oil and gas areas of the 21st century. The ExxonMobil-led consortium has identified approximately 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent in recoverable resources offshore Guyana to date, with an additional 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent in Suriname.

The third and latest breakthrough is unfolding in Namibia's Orange Basin: discoveries by Shell, TotalEnergies, and GalpEnergia over the past three years have positioned this region as the most promising new oil and gas frontier for the decade leading up to 2030, poised to transform this southern African nation into a significant deepwater producer. Despite a decade-long decline in conventional discoveries, these two groups remain the primary contributors to new global resources, highlighting their unique capabilities and strategic focus. According to Rystad Energy estimates, since 2015, the six major international oil companies—ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Eni, BP, and Chevron—have accounted for approximately 22% of discoveries.

These companies are pioneering new hydrocarbon frontiers through advanced subsurface imaging, digital analytics, and capital strength, while setting new benchmarks for shortening the discovery-to-development cycle. Meanwhile, national oil companies focused on domestic and regional exploration are balancing national energy security with portfolio expansion. Enterprises like Petrobras, ADNOC, and Qatari Petroleum are not only committed to reserve replacement but also strengthening their positions as global oil and gas leaders. International oil giants and numerous national oil companies jointly dominate deepwater discoveries driving global supply growth, while independent and smaller companies participate selectively. Consequently, risk and potential returns become critical factors in identifying global exploration hotspots and strategic outlooks, with large-scale exploration heavily reliant on institutions possessing both deep technical expertise and long-term investment commitment.

However, despite more targeted exploration today, oil discoveries remain insufficient. Without sustained exploration, supply shortages and price volatility threaten both energy security and the stability of the energy transition. While the world advances toward net-zero goals and reduces its carbon footprint, one reality cannot be ignored: declining production cannot be addressed without new oil and gas discoveries. Behind the persistent decline in discoveries lies a sharp drop in exploration spending. The industry's pivot reflects both external pressures and internal strategic shifts. Yet as exploration activity and discoveries diminish, project reserves continue to shrink. Exploration and new discoveries remain critical to sustaining global oil and gas supply and balancing long-term demand.