Natural Gas Production and Demand Growth Is Not Against the Trend

In the wave of energy transition, it was originally expected that the shift would gradually reduce demand for oil, natural gas, and coal, leading to a continuous decline in fossil fuel consumption. However, reality shows that recently, demand for oil, natural gas, and coal has continued to grow—especially for natural gas. This trend has frustrated advocates of energy transition, who see rising natural gas production and consumption as going against the current. Yet, I believe that growth in natural gas demand and output aligns not only with carbon reduction goals but also with overall energy needs, and therefore does not contradict broader trends.

Regarding the necessity of natural gas, recent quarterly reports from several major oil companies highlight the importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations. As we enter the era of artificial intelligence (AI), analysts predict AI will drive a surge in global electricity demand. Wind and solar power cannot adequately meet the additional electricity needs of data centers, making natural gas power generation the most stable and cleanest energy supply option. Thus, reliance on LNG—a fossil fuel—is becoming inevitable. In fact, LNG has become a focal point for energy giants. Shell recently announced plans to add 12 million tons per year of LNG capacity by 2030. TotalEnergies of France is advancing its own LNG projects while engaging in LNG trading with other producers, aiming to increase company-controlled LNG volumes by 50% by 2030. Earlier this year, BP launched a new offshore LNG project near Senegal and Mauritania, planning to turn these two countries into major LNG hubs. ExxonMobil and Chevron are similarly ambitious: ExxonMobil aims to increase its LNG assets by 50% by 2030, while Chevron plans to further expand its global LNG business.

Recently, both natural gas demand and production are highly likely to rise. Even the International Energy Agency (IEA), a strong advocate of energy transition, stated in a recent report that natural gas demand is expected to continue growing, especially demand for LNG. In Europe—the region with the most aggressive energy transition—rapid growth in renewable energy has not significantly reduced natural gas demand. Considering the prospects of AI development and its impact on electricity demand, it can be concluded that future demand for natural gas will only become more solidified.