Slight Drop in U.S. Holiday Return Rates, Peak Expected After Christmas

From November 1 to December 12, 2025, U.S. holiday shopping return rates decreased by 2.5% year-over-year, with only a 0.1% decline in the seven days following Cyber Week. Adobe expects post-Christmas returns to rise 25%-35% compared to previous periods, remain 8%-15% higher during the first two weeks of January, and see one-eighth of total returns concentrated in the last six days of December. Holiday spending is currently up 6.1% year-over-year, with categories like toys still offering discounts in December. Based on analysis of over a trillion retail visits, Adobe will release final data in early January 2026.